Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport is expected to record its peak daily temperature on 13 July 2026, with the market currently pricing any outcome below the highest defined range at zero probability. Historical July climatology for the region centres on 30–32°C averages, though occasional spikes exceeding 35°C are well documented, and recent years have seen days reaching up to 38°C in the hottest months [1][2]. The current Polymarket contract shows a 34% implied probability for 38°C as the leading outcome, with 37°C trailing at 28%, suggesting traders are betting on a significant heat event rather than typical summer warmth [1].

China experienced its hottest July on record recently, with the highest average temperature since comprehensive data collection began in 1961, reinforcing the plausibility of extreme heat in Sichuan this month [5]. Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the Shuangliu station, as the market resolves strictly on the highest temperature recorded for all times on 13 July at that specific location [1][8]. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on 13 July 2026, any divergence between the 0% crowd-implied probability for lower ranges and the 89% Polymarket probability for 38°C represents a notable cross-platform odds discrepancy worth investigating [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.