Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s hottest reading on 24 July will be set by the airport station, so the relevant question is whether the day’s maximum lands in a relatively normal midsummer band or pushes into a hotter outlier range. Current public weather forecasts for Chengdu cluster around the mid-30s Celsius for daytime highs, with BBC and the Met Office both pointing to highs near 35°C, while a local-weather aggregate shows a broader range around 36°C/24°C[2][4][1]. That sits above the July climatological average high of about 30°C, which is consistent with the city’s humid, rain-prone summer pattern and leaves the upper-30s as the main upside risk if cloud cover breaks late in the day[3].

Against that backdrop, a 0% crowd-implied YES probability looks markedly detached from the weather setup. In practical market terms, that kind of pricing suggests the contract is being treated as either mis-specified, illiquid, or effectively ignored, rather than as a clean read on the forecast distribution. For comparison, sportsbook-style weather lines would typically be anchored to the forecast high and the probability of exceeding adjacent temperature bands, while analyst consensus from the forecast sources here points to a hot day but not an extreme one, making mid-30s the most defensible expectation[1][2][4]. Traders will mainly want to watch for any late forecast shifts in cloud, rainfall and thunderstorm timing, because those are the variables most likely to cap the airport maximum below the broader city forecast or, conversely, allow a brief spike above it[1][3][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.