Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu will experience peak summer heat on 25 July 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Shuangliu International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature brackets, suggesting either incomplete pricing or extreme uncertainty about which range will ultimately contain the day's maximum reading.

Chengdu's July climate presents a narrow historical band for comparison. The city's average July high hovers around 29–30°C, though readings regularly exceed 35°C during heat waves. Over the past decade, peak July temperatures at Shuangliu have ranged from 32°C to 39°C, with extreme outliers above 40°C occurring roughly once per five years. The 0% probability across all brackets is anomalous given this established volatility; comparable weather markets on other platforms typically distribute probability across multiple temperature ranges rather than clustering entirely at zero. This divergence suggests the market may be awaiting initial price discovery or reflects a data-loading issue rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts released in early July 2026, which typically provide reliable 10–14 day outlooks for regional heat patterns. The East Asian summer monsoon's intensity directly influences Chengdu's temperature trajectory; a stronger monsoon system would suppress peaks toward the 28–32°C range, whilst a weakened system could drive readings toward 36–39°C. Wunderground's historical data feed has proven reliable for settlement purposes across previous weather markets, though traders should verify the specific station designation (ZUUU) matches the airport's official weather reporting location before committing capital.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.