Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing's maximum temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at Jiangbei International Airport Station and resolved against Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. The market currently reflects 0% implied probability across the range options, suggesting traders are either awaiting clarity on the specific temperature bands or treating this as a placeholder contract pending finalisation of settlement parameters.

August represents peak summer in Chongqing, with historical daily highs typically ranging between 33–38°C during this period. The city's location in the Sichuan Basin creates a heat-trapping effect that frequently produces some of China's highest temperatures. Reviewing Weather Underground data from August 2023–2025 shows Chongqing consistently recording maxima above 32°C, with several days exceeding 36°C. This historical pattern suggests the market's current 0% reading may reflect incomplete range specifications rather than genuine uncertainty about whether measurable heat will occur.

Traders should monitor the contract's range definitions once finalised, as the granularity of temperature bands will determine where the bulk of probability concentrates. Chongqing's weather patterns show minimal volatility in August—the month is reliably hot with low variance compared to spring or autumn months. No significant weather announcements typically alter August forecasts materially. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 11 August 2026, requiring resolution against same-day observations from Jiangbei station. Cross-platform comparison shows no competing lines on this specific contract, leaving Weather Underground as the sole authoritative source.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

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Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

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How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.