Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 20 August 2026, Chongqing will record a daily maximum temperature at Jiangbei International Airport Station. The market resolves based on the highest reading in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—the granular station data rather than the summary high-low figures—converted into a discrete temperature range in degrees Celsius. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are not currently backing any specific range outcome, indicating either insufficient liquidity or genuine uncertainty about which bracket will capture the actual high.

Chongqing's August climate provides a useful baseline. Historical data from the airport station shows August highs typically range between 32–36°C, with occasional peaks above 37°C during heat waves. The city experienced a 40.9°C reading in August 2022, though such extremes remain outliers. Comparing this market's current odds against comparable weather contracts on other platforms reveals no meaningful divergence—most prediction markets show similarly flat probability distributions for future temperature outcomes, reflecting the inherent difficulty in pinpointing exact daily highs months in advance. Sportsbooks do not typically offer weather derivatives, so cross-platform comparison is limited to prediction-market venues.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration seasonal forecasts released in July 2026, which typically provide guidance on August temperature anomalies. El Niño or La Niña conditions developing through mid-2026 could shift baseline expectations. Real-time tracking begins in late July, when 10-day forecasts become reliable enough to inform range positioning. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 20 August, requiring resolution within hours of the airport station's final daily observation.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 20? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.