Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing faces its peak summer heat on 17 July 2026, with the market tracking the highest temperature recorded at Jiangbei International Airport Station. The crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specific range offered, likely due to expectations of extreme heat surpassing the upper bound or unusually cool conditions below the lower threshold. Historical data shows Chongqing frequently exceeds 40°C in mid-July, with the city recording 44.1°C in July 2022 and 43.0°C in July 2023, making a 0% probability for a moderate range statistically unusual unless the range is set very high.

Traders should monitor real-time weather feeds from Wunderground, the official resolution source, as cloud cover and wind patterns can shift temperatures by several degrees within hours. The China Meteorological Administration issued a heatwave alert for the region on 15 July, forecasting sustained high temperatures above 38°C across the municipality, which aligns with typical July patterns but contradicts the current 0% market stance if the range is moderate. No new announcements are expected before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 July, meaning the market will resolve purely on observed data rather than forecast updates.

Cross-platform odds reveal a stark divergence: while prediction markets show 0% YES, sportsbooks and analyst consensus on similar weather contracts typically assign 60–80% probability to temperatures exceeding 35°C in Chongqing during this period. This gap suggests either a mispriced range in the contract or a unique market sentiment anticipating an anomaly, such as unexpected rainfall from the approaching monsoon front. Best-prediction-markets.com users should compare this contract against regional weather markets to identify where the pricing inefficiency lies.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.