Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing is set to experience its peak summer heat on 2 July 2026, with the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station expected to record the day’s highest temperature in degrees Celsius. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market believes the temperature will not fall within the specified range, a stance that diverges sharply from historical patterns where July highs routinely exceed 30°C.

Historically, Chongqing’s July daily maximums clear 30°C in the overwhelming majority of years, with daytime temperatures typically ranging from 32 to 37°C and rarely falling below 32°C or exceeding 43°C[1][5]. Even during recent heatwaves, daily peaks have seldom surpassed 39°C, though the city’s hottest recorded day hit 43.2°C[3][4]. This historical consistency frames the 0% implied probability as an outlier, especially when compared to similar contracts where odds reflect a 41% chance of exceeding 30°C on 1 July[2].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for the highest temperature recorded at the station throughout the day[8]. While no specific announcements are scheduled, the city’s 20.2 average rain days in July could introduce variability, as rainfall often moderates peak temperatures[4]. Recent coverage of Chongqing residents seeking shelter during a 2025 heatwave underscores the region’s vulnerability to extreme heat, reinforcing the likelihood of high temperatures despite the market’s current bearish stance[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.