Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s official airport reading on 27 July will settle against the day’s highest temperature, and the live market is pricing a very hot outcome rather than an all-out extreme. On Polymarket, the leading bracket is **39°C** at 42%, with **38°C** close behind at 31%, while the user-facing crowd-implied probability for a simple YES is currently 0%, which suggests the contract is being interpreted as a range-based outcome rather than a binary weather call.[2]

That pricing is broadly consistent with Chongqing’s late-July climate, which is typically hot, humid and rain-prone. Travel China Guide lists July as “extremely hot” in Chongqing, with an average high of **33°C**, but also notes frequent rain and thunderstorms, which can cap the day’s maximum if convective cloud cover develops early.[1] In practical terms, a 38–39°C peak is warmer than the monthly norm, so the contract is leaning towards a hotter-than-average day rather than an exceptional record spike.[1][2]

For traders, the main catalysts are the afternoon heating curve, cloud cover, and whether thunderstorms arrive early enough to interrupt peak warming. Because the settlement source is the Wunderground history page for Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, the key dependency is the airport station’s reported maximum rather than citywide averages, so localised rain bands matter more than broad regional forecasts.[1] At 10:00 UTC, the market still has most of the day’s temperature formation ahead of it, so any updated short-range forecast or radar trend that shifts the expected high by even 1°C can move the highest-probability bracket quickly.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 27? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.