Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field is forecast to reach highs near 99°F on 12 July 2026, driven by persistent high pressure, clear skies, and southerly flow. Despite this, the prediction market for any outcome above 97°F shows a crowd-implied probability of 0% YES, creating a stark divergence from the AccuWeather forecast which projects daily highs between 96°F and 102°F for the month [2]. Historical climatology confirms July is the hottest month, with a normal maximum of 96.9°F, yet the market heavily favours the 94–95°F range at 39% probability, suggesting traders are pricing in a cooler-than-forecast scenario or a specific resolution threshold [1][6].

The 0% probability on the upper end contradicts the current sportsbook-style consensus on Polymarket, where the frontrunner is 94–95°F rather than any range exceeding 97°F [1]. Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, as the market resolves to the highest temperature recorded for all times on that day [1]. With the settlement window ending on 12 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, the key dependency is the actual peak reading at KDAL, which recent short-term data suggests could align closer to the 96–98°F band if the high-pressure system maintains intensity [3]. Any deviation from the 99°F forecast would validate the market’s current pricing, while a spike above 100°F would represent a significant mispricing relative to the 0% implied probability.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.