Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Dallas Love Field Station will record its highest temperature on 13 July 2026, with settlement determined by Wunderground historical data. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% reflects the market's nascent state rather than meteorological certainty; temperature ranges typically span 90–105°F for Dallas in mid-July, meaning the eventual outcome will almost certainly fall within one of the available brackets.

Dallas's July climate is remarkably consistent year-on-year. The 30-year average high for mid-July sits near 95°F, with extreme readings rarely exceeding 105°F. Historical records show that temperatures above 100°F occur in roughly 40% of July days in Dallas, whilst readings below 90°F are uncommon. The 0% probability currently assigned suggests traders have not yet engaged with the market's temperature brackets, leaving pricing uninformed by baseline climatology rather than indicating an expectation of anomalous conditions.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service forecast window as July 2026 approaches. Heat domes and upper-level ridge positioning in the preceding weeks will signal whether conditions favour above-average or below-average temperatures. Atmospheric patterns in early July typically establish the thermal regime for mid-month; La Niña or El Niño conditions, if present, could influence broader regional temperature trends. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's historical archive for KDAL, which records observations consistently and is accessible for verification before the 12:00 UTC settlement deadline.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.