Highest temperature in Dallas on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas Love Field recorded its peak heat for 16 July 2026 at 88–89°F, a figure that aligns with the city’s typical midsummer ceiling rather than an extreme outlier. Historical data for mid-July in Dallas shows average highs near 95°F, yet the Love Field station often registers slightly lower temperatures than the broader metro area due to its urban airport setting and proximity to shade from surrounding infrastructure [1]. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for any outcome below this range reflects a consensus that the day’s thermal profile was firmly within the expected band, with no divergence from the 88–89°F frontrunner that dominates Polymarket pricing at 100% [1].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s daily archive for the KDAL station, the sole resolution source, as it provides the definitive hourly peak for the settlement window ending 12:00 UTC on 16 July [1]. Unlike sportsbooks that might offer binary heat thresholds, prediction markets here resolve to precise ranges, creating a clear arbitrage gap where the 0% probability on lower bands contrasts sharply with the 100% certainty on the 88–89°F outcome [1]. No external catalysts such as weather announcements or schedule changes influence this contract post-settlement, as the event has already concluded with the temperature locked in the frontrunner range.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Dallas on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.