Highest temperature in Dallas on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Dallas Love Field Station will record a maximum temperature on 27 July 2026, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Weather Underground. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are not positioning for any specific temperature range, indicating either incomplete market formation or consensus that certain thresholds are implausible given seasonal norms.

Dallas summer temperatures in late July typically peak between 92°F and 98°F, based on thirty-year climate records. The city's historical July 27 highs range from 89°F to 101°F, with the median around 95°F. The 0% probability reading across all temperature brackets is unusual for an active weather market and suggests the market may lack sufficient liquidity or clarity on available temperature ranges. Comparable prediction markets on US temperature extremes typically show distributed probabilities across multiple outcomes rather than complete consensus rejection.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the National Weather Service Dallas/Fort Worth forecast window as mid-July 2026 approaches, which will provide ten-day outlooks approximately two weeks before settlement. Heat dome patterns affecting the southern United States, if they develop, would shift probabilities toward higher temperature ranges. The settlement mechanism's reliance on a single official station means local weather variations across the Dallas metropolitan area are irrelevant—only Love Field Station readings determine resolution. Current market pricing suggests traders are either awaiting additional information or treating this as a placeholder until more granular temperature-range options become available.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Dallas on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.