Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the highest temperature recorded at Dallas Love Field on 28 June 2026, a single-day weather metric that will settle a prediction market with a current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the "YES" outcome. This near-zero pricing suggests the market believes the temperature will fall outside the specific range being traded, despite historical data indicating June highs in Dallas typically reach 96° to 100°F [4].

Historical precedents from similar June dates in Dallas show consistent warmth, with recent Polymarket contracts for 17 June and 25 June 2026 resolving to 90–91°F and 92–93°F respectively, both at 100% certainty [1][2]. The divergence between these established patterns and the current 0% implied probability is stark, as analyst consensus on comparable weather contracts usually aligns with seasonal averages rather than dismissing the likelihood of high temperatures entirely.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service observations for Dallas Love Field, which recorded partly cloudy conditions with a temperature of 81°F early on the 28th, alongside the official Wunderground daily high that will determine the final settlement [5][7]. The primary catalyst is the release of the full daily temperature record from Wunderground, which will confirm whether the day’s peak aligns with the seasonal norm of 96° to 100°F or deviates significantly [4]. Any unexpected shift in cloud cover or wind patterns, such as the reported 12 mph south winds with 20 mph gusts, could influence the final high temperature and create a meaningful divergence from the current market odds [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.