Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, the real-world event determining this market is the peak temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, with settlement relying on Wunderground’s daily high. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific temperature range suggests the market expects a result far outside the contracted band, yet historical data frames this as an outlier view. July in Guangzhou routinely sees highs near 33°C (91°F), rarely dipping below 29°C or exceeding 36°C, while the absolute record for this exact date is 39.1°C, logged on 1 July 2004[3]. Recent years have also shown extreme heat, with China experiencing its hottest July on record in 2024, averaging 23.21°C nationally and pushing regional highs significantly higher[6].

Traders should monitor the China Meteorological Administration’s daily forecasts for the Pearl River Delta, particularly any announcements regarding monsoon intensity or heatwave warnings scheduled for early July. A sudden shift in cloud cover or rainfall could depress temperatures below the 33°C average, while persistent high-pressure systems may push readings toward the 36°C upper limit observed in recent historical data[8]. The divergence between the 0% prediction-market probability and analyst consensus on typical July highs—often cited around 33°C to 36°C—indicates a meaningful mispricing, especially given the 2004 record for this specific date[3]. Sportsbook lines on similar weather contracts often reflect higher volatility, whereas this market’s flat probability ignores the documented frequency of extreme heat in Guangzhou during this period[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.