Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 21 July 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport determining the settlement outcome. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either a data lag or settlement mechanism awaiting activation. Historical July maxima at this station typically range between 33°C and 36°C, with occasional excursions toward 37°C during particularly intense heatwaves. The 0% reading across all brackets is anomalous and warrants scrutiny—traders should verify whether the market has properly initialised its outcome categories or whether liquidity constraints are suppressing visible probabilities.

Guangzhou's summer temperatures depend primarily on monsoon patterns and upper-atmospheric circulation during mid-July. The South China summer monsoon typically peaks in early July, moderating heat through increased cloud cover and precipitation, though inland areas near Baiyun Airport often remain hotter than coastal zones. Recent years have shown increasing frequency of 35°C+ days in Guangzhou during July, consistent with broader warming trends across southern China. Traders monitoring China Meteorological Administration forecasts and real-time satellite imagery from mid-July onwards will have actionable signals; the settlement window closes at noon UTC on 21 July, allowing only morning observations to influence final resolution. No scheduled weather announcements or climate events are expected to materially shift baseline expectations before the settlement date.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.