Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s airport temperature on 23 July will be set by the day’s highest reading at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, and the crowd is currently leaning to a **36°C** outcome, with that band priced at 47% versus 28% for **35°C** on Polymarket.[1] In other words, the market is not pricing a broad cool-down; it is effectively debating whether the day tops out in the mid-30s or edges one degree higher.[1]

That pricing sits close to the local climate backdrop. Guangzhou’s July average high is around **32°C**, with hot, humid conditions and frequent rainfall, so a 35–36°C peak is above the monthly norm but still within a plausible summer range.[3] AccuWeather’s current reading for the city shows **91°F** with a **RealFeel® of 109°F**, underlining how oppressive the heat has been even before the daily maximum is fixed.[2] Compared with sportsbook-style weather derivatives, there is no visible two-sided line here; the only public price signal in the market data is the prediction-market distribution, which implies meaningful probability mass in the 35–36°C band.[1]

For traders, the key catalyst is the official airport station observation through the day, because settlement depends on the highest temperature recorded there, not the citywide forecast.[1] That means late-morning and early-afternoon heating, cloud breaks, showers, and any local convective rain near Baiyun Airport matter more than headline city forecasts.[2][3] The market window closes at 12:00 UTC, so the remaining move will be driven by whether conditions support another climb after the morning reading rather than by any scheduled announcement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 23? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.