Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s hottest reading on 27 July will come from Baiyun International Airport Station, and the market is effectively asking how high the day’s maximum gets at a single official observation point. The crowd price at **0% YES** suggests the contract is being treated as very unlikely to land in the specified upper temperature range, which is unusual given how warm Guangzhou typically runs in late July.

That caution can be set against the local climatology: July normals for Guangzhou are around **34°C highs** with **27°C lows**, and longer-run summaries still put typical July daytime peaks in the low 30s Celsius, with heavy rain and humidity common. Nearby forecast services also point to a broad range of possible highs, with one current outlook showing **peak temperatures up to 37°C** over the next ten days, which matters because a single hot, humid day can still clear lower contract bands even in a wet monsoon pattern.

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward rather than event-driven: the official airport station reading on Wunderground, the timing of any afternoon thunderstorms, and whether cloud cover or rainfall caps the day’s maximum before local peak heating. Guangzhou’s July weather is often unsettled, with frequent rain and high humidity, so the key dependency is not a policy announcement or schedule change but the intraday convective pattern that develops before the noon settlement cut-off.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.