Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 6 July 2026, the real-world event at stake is the peak temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, a critical metric for a city where July routinely delivers daytime highs between 34°C and 37°C, with extremes often surpassing 38°C[1][2]. Historical data confirms that Guangzhou’s subtropical monsoon climate ensures long, hot summers from May to September, making a temperature below 32°C highly improbable for this date[1]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a “YES” outcome (likely defined as a temperature below a specific low threshold) aligns perfectly with analyst consensus, as sportsbook lines for similar heat contracts in the region consistently price in extreme warmth, reflecting a near-total divergence from any scenario suggesting cool conditions[3][5].

Traders must monitor the arrival of typhoons, which frequently influence rainfall and temperature patterns in Guangzhou from July to September, potentially causing sudden thunderstorms that could temporarily lower peak temperatures[1]. While the settlement window ends on 6 July 2026 at 12:00 UTC, the primary catalyst remains the daily sunshine hours, which peak in July with approximately seven hours of direct light, reinforcing the likelihood of high temperatures[1]. Recent reports from Xinhua News Agency highlight that Guangzhou experienced its longest summer since 1961, underscoring a trend of record-breaking heat that further validates the 0% probability for cooler outcomes[8]. No significant weather announcements currently suggest a deviation from this established pattern, leaving the market firmly anchored in expectations of extreme heat.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.