Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport is set to record its peak temperature for 9 July 2026, with the market currently assigning zero probability to any outcome above the lowest threshold. This stark 0% implied probability clashes sharply with cross-platform data: Polymarket’s frontrunner is 33°C at 40%, while 34°C or higher also holds 40%, suggesting a tight distribution centred near historical July averages of 32°C[1]. Early July typically sees daily highs clustered between 31°C and 34°C, based on China Meteorological Administration records, making the current crowd-implied zero probability an outlier against both prediction-market lines and analyst consensus[5].

Historical context frames this divergence: July 25 marks Guangzhou’s highest daily average high at 91°F (32.8°C), while this summer has already seen record-breaking heat waves across southern China, with July averaging 23.2°C—the highest since 1961[2][3]. The Pearl River Delta’s urban heat-island effect and variable humidity keep temperatures elevated, yet the settlement window ends 2026-07-09T12:00:00Z, meaning traders must monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the Baiyun station’s peak reading[4]. Recent news confirms Guangzhou broke a three-decade heat record, experiencing 235 summer days by temperature, a catalyst that could push highs beyond 34°C if humidity spikes before noon[7]. Traders should watch for sudden weather advisories or humidity shifts from the Guangdong Meteorological Bureau, as these dependencies directly influence the final resolution[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 9? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.