Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

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Market context

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport is poised to record its peak daily temperature on 27 June 2026, a metric that will determine the outcome of a specific prediction contract. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" resolution suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the designated range, likely due to anticipated weather patterns that deviate from the contract's threshold.

Historical data frames this low probability with stark clarity, as June in Guangzhou is notoriously hot and humid, with the highest recorded temperature reaching 36.6°C [1]. Recent trends reinforce this intensity, with May 2026 marking the hottest May in history, where temperatures climbed to 36.3°C during continuous sunny days [3]. However, climate models for late June often predict thunderstorms with heavy rain, which could suppress peak temperatures to around 31°C [4]. This divergence between historical highs and forecasted precipitation creates the meaningful gap traders must analyse when comparing sportsbook lines against the 0% market implied probability.

Traders should monitor the immediate release of the official Wunderground daily report for the Baiyun station, as this is the definitive settlement source [6]. The primary catalyst is the potential arrival of typhoons or heavy storm systems, which are frequent in June and can drastically lower temperatures [1]. Analysts must also watch for updates on the subtropical high-pressure system, which currently influences the region's thermal strength [1]. Any sudden shift in the forecast from sunny to stormy conditions will be the critical dependency that validates or invalidates the current market consensus.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.