Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s top temperature on 1 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” reading for that date, so the contract is really a bet on whether the day finishes in the relevant temperature band rather than on any intraday spike.[14] The crowd-implied probability is 0% YES, which sits far below the market’s own climatology: the Hong Kong Observatory’s 1991-2020 normal for 1 August shows a mean maximum of 31.6°C, while August as a whole is a hot, humid month in the city.[1][2]

That historical backdrop matters because Hong Kong has repeatedly delivered very warm Augusts, including an exceptionally hot August 2024 when the Observatory reported a mean daily maximum of 32.3°C, and 2025 also produced a notably warm month with outbreaks of very hot weather.[6][13] Public weather summaries put early-August highs around the low 30s Celsius, which would usually leave the market’s lower temperature bands looking more plausible than an outright cold outcome.[1][2][9] If sportsbook-style pricing is available, it would normally be expected to lean towards the warmer bands as well, but the only live price signal provided here is the 0% prediction-market read.

Traders should watch the Observatory’s daily extract publication schedule rather than forecasts alone, because this contract cannot settle until the final daily data are published.[14] The key dependency is the official daily maximum for 1 August, measured to one decimal place, which means any borderline 30.9°C versus 31.0°C-style outcome can matter if the market is banded tightly.[14] Short-range forecasts and current weather updates from the Observatory are useful for context, but the resolution will ultimately hinge on the archived daily climatological record, not on commentary or model guidance.[3][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.