Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's daily maximum temperature on 12 August 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and published in their Daily Extract climate data. The settlement hinges on the Observatory's official "Absolute Daily Max" reading in degrees Celsius to one decimal place, with resolution delayed until that figure is formally released.

August represents the peak of Hong Kong's summer monsoon season, when daily highs routinely exceed 32°C. Historical data from the Observatory shows August maxima typically range between 31–34°C, with extreme readings occasionally reaching 35–36°C during particularly intense heat episodes. The 0% crowd probability across prediction markets suggests traders are either awaiting range options to clarify what temperature thresholds constitute each outcome, or the market structure itself remains unclear pending full specification. Without visibility on the specific temperature bands offered, meaningful comparison against sportsbook lines or analyst consensus is not yet possible.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone alerts issued in early August 2026, as these directly influence daily maximum temperatures. The Observatory publishes extended outlooks approximately two weeks in advance; any signals of anomalous heat or weather systems will inform positioning. Settlement cannot occur until the Observatory publishes the Daily Extract for 12 August, typically within days of the observation date. The one-decimal precision requirement means marginal differences in recorded temperature could determine outcome boundaries, making the exact range specifications critical to trading decisions.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.