Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius, with settlement determined by which range bracket contains that official reading. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal liquidity across the contract's resolution categories.

Hong Kong's August temperatures historically cluster in a narrow band. The Observatory's climate records show August daily maxima typically range between 31–33°C, with extreme heat days occasionally reaching 34–35°C. The all-time August record stands at 36.3°C, recorded in 1967. Recent Augusts have seen consistent patterns: 2023 peaked at 33.1°C, whilst 2022 reached 34.0°C. This historical clustering means the probability distribution should reflect a concentration around the 32–34°C range rather than tail outcomes, making a 0% reading across all brackets unusual and likely indicative of incomplete market pricing or a single dominant position.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during mid-August 2026, as such systems can suppress temperatures significantly. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 August, but the Observatory typically publishes daily climate data within 24–48 hours of the observation period. Any divergence between this market's pricing and comparable weather derivatives on international platforms would signal whether regional liquidity or information asymmetries are driving the current odds.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.