Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 19?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 19 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius, and this market will settle to whichever range bracket contains that figure. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though the Observatory typically publishes its daily climate extract within hours of the observation period ending. Hong Kong's August temperatures are among the year's most consistent, with historical daily maxima clustering tightly between 31 and 34 degrees Celsius during the peak summer monsoon season.

The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's current state rather than any meteorological certainty. August in Hong Kong sits within the Southwest Monsoon period, characterised by warm, humid conditions with occasional tropical storms that can suppress daytime highs. Historical data from the Observatory shows that extreme heat events—temperatures exceeding 35 degrees—occur roughly once per decade in August, whilst readings below 30 degrees are exceptionally rare. The most recent August heat spike occurred in 2023, when multiple days exceeded 34 degrees. Current seasonal forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory and regional meteorological services will become available in July 2026, providing the primary catalyst for probability shifts as traders incorporate updated atmospheric models and monsoon intensity predictions.

Cross-platform comparison reveals minimal divergence because most prediction markets and weather-focused betting platforms have not yet opened positions on this specific date. Once July approaches and seasonal forecasts crystallise, traders should monitor whether the Observatory issues any heat advisories or revises its monsoon intensity outlook, as these typically precede sustained temperature anomalies.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.