Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s observatory reading on 8 August is the settlement point here, with the market ultimately tied to the **absolute daily maximum temperature** published in the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily extract, measured to one decimal place. The crowd is pricing a **0% YES** outcome, which effectively says the market sees no realistic chance that the day’s maximum lands in the contract’s YES range.

That scepticism is consistent with the historical baseline. Hong Kong’s 8 August climate normal is a **daily maximum of 31.7°C**, while recent summers have often produced highs in the low-to-mid 30s rather than extreme spikes.[6][14] The city’s all-time August high at the Observatory is **36.3°C**, recorded on 8 August 2015, showing that genuinely exceptional heat is possible but rare.[1] By contrast, a hot but more ordinary August example saw **34.4°C** on 8 August 2020, which still sat well below the record.[9] In other words, unless conditions become unusually severe, the distribution has historically been anchored around the low 30s, which helps explain why the market is not assigning meaningful weight to a high-end outcome.

The main catalysts are procedural rather than speculative: the contract cannot resolve until the Hong Kong Observatory publishes the final daily extract for 8 August, so traders should watch the Observatory’s daily readings and any later-finalised archive update.[2] Short-term weather conditions, especially any heat warning regime or a strong ridge bringing subsiding air, matter more than seasonal averages, because they can push the Observatory reading above the normal despite Hong Kong’s frequent cloud, humidity and afternoon convection.[4][6] Cross-platform comparison is straightforward here: sportsbook-style lines are not widely quoted for this specific temperature bucket, while the prediction market’s **0% YES** implies a far more extreme temperature band than the climatological norm and only a remote chance of a record-level day.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.