Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, Hong Kong will experience its peak summer heat as the Hong Kong Observatory records the absolute daily maximum temperature for the day. This single data point will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the current crowd-implied probability for a “YES” result sits at 0%, suggesting traders believe the temperature will fall outside the specified range. The market resolves only once the official “Daily Extract” is finalized, ensuring the figure reflects the Observatory’s verified “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)”.

Historical July data frames this near-zero probability with stark clarity. The highest monthly maximum temperature ever recorded in Hong Kong is 35.7°C, a figure from the 1885–2019 ranking [1]. Recent forecasts for July 2026 indicate daily highs between 30°C and 34°C (86°F–93°F), with an average high of 31.7°C (89°F) [2]. Even the most extreme recent spike, 35.0°C (95.0°F) on 24 June 2026, remains below the 35.7°C ceiling [3]. Given that July has already broken 11 heat records this year, becoming Hong Kong’s hottest month ever, the likelihood of exceeding the market’s upper threshold appears negligible [4].

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s climatological releases, particularly the finalisation of the July 2026 “Daily Extract” for 10 July, which is the sole resolution dependency [7]. No immediate weather announcements are expected to alter the baseline, but any sudden shift in monsoon activity or urban heatwave intensity could impact the final reading. The Observatory’s official climatological page will publish the verified figure once data is finalized, and this publication is the only catalyst that can change the market outcome [7]. Until then, the 0% implied probability remains anchored in decades of temperature records and current seasonal trends.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.