Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s temperature on 25 July will be judged against the Hong Kong Observatory’s recorded daily maximum, so the practical question is whether the city reaches one of the upper summer bands rather than anything extreme. July is normally Hong Kong’s hottest month, with average highs around 32°C and daily highs usually sitting near 32°C, rarely below 29°C or above 34°C.[1][2] That backdrop makes the crowd-implied 2% for the contract’s top-end outcome look very low relative to climatology, which is consistent with markets pricing a specific ceiling rather than the general likelihood of a hot day.[1][2]

Historically, the best way to read this kind of contract is to compare it with the month’s distribution rather than the average alone: Hong Kong often posts warm, humid afternoons, but the probability of an especially high printed maximum is constrained by rainfall, cloud cover and onshore flow in July.[1][2] A useful cross-check is the nearby prediction market for the same date’s *lowest* temperature, where the market currently has a much more dispersed pricing structure, suggesting traders are distinguishing between the narrower overnight cooling range and the more weather-sensitive daytime peak.[3] On that basis, an analyst-style read would put the current 2% as a tail price, not a view that a hot afternoon is unlikely.

The main catalysts are the Hong Kong Observatory’s overnight and morning updates, plus any shift in local rain or thunderstorm expectations before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes. The market cannot resolve until the Observatory publishes the finalized “Daily Extract” with the “Absolute Daily Max” for 25 July, so traders will be watching for the last pre-noon update cycle and any late revisions to the daily climate record page.[4] If afternoon convection is suppressed and skies stay partly clear, the realised maximum can still overshoot the average; if showers build earlier, the printed high may land materially lower than the headline July norm.[1][2][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 25? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.