Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 11?

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Market context

Hong Kong's peak temperature on 11 June 2026 will be recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory and resolved to the nearest 0.1°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though final data publication may extend beyond the real-time observation period. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0%, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across the full range of possible outcomes.

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong cluster between 28°C and 33°C for daily maxima, with occasional spikes above 34°C during early-season heat waves. The Observatory's 30-year climatological mean for early June sits around 30–31°C. Recent years show high variability: June 2023 saw peaks near 32°C, whilst June 2024 recorded several days above 33°C. This volatility reflects Hong Kong's monsoon transition period, when southwesterly winds intensify but tropical systems remain infrequent. Traders should reference the Observatory's historical daily extract records to calibrate expectations against comparable years.

The primary catalyst is the onset of the southwest monsoon, typically established by mid-June, which moderates extreme heat through increased cloud cover and moisture. Secondary factors include any tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific—though June systems remain rare—and the strength of the Pacific anticyclone. The Hong Kong Observatory publishes extended forecasts ten days ahead; traders should monitor these releases from early June onwards. Publication of the final daily extract typically occurs within 48 hours of the observation date, triggering resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.