Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?

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Market context

On 12 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius, with settlement determined by which range bracket contains that single measurement. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, indicating either incomplete pricing or a technical lag in odds aggregation across platforms.

Hong Kong's June climate sits firmly within the early monsoon season, when daily maxima typically range between 29–33°C depending on cloud cover and wind patterns. Historical data from the Observatory shows that extreme heat days—those exceeding 35°C—occur in June roughly once every five to seven years, whilst temperatures below 27°C are rare but possible during particularly cloudy or wet periods. The current crowd probability of 0% across all outcomes suggests traders have not yet engaged meaningfully with this contract, creating potential divergence between this market and any comparable weather derivatives or sportsbook weather-betting lines that may emerge closer to the settlement date.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific during early June 2026, as both directly influence daily temperature ranges. The Observatory publishes extended outlooks approximately two weeks in advance; these forecasts typically carry predictive value for temperature clustering. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's published "Daily Extract" data, which becomes available only after the measurement date, meaning real-time price discovery will be constrained until official figures are released.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.