Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 13?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in degrees Celsius on 13 June 2026, with settlement determined by the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Daily Extract once finalised. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are not yet engaging with this contract, likely because the event lies eighteen months ahead and lacks immediate catalyst relevance.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are historically stable and well-documented. The Observatory's 30-year climate normal for mid-June shows daily maximum temperatures averaging around 31–32°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 35°C in this month. The highest temperature ever recorded in Hong Kong across all months is 39.9°C (September 1967), but June typically sees more moderate heat. This seasonal pattern means the resolution brackets should reflect the narrow band of plausible outcomes rather than outlier scenarios. Historical volatility in June daily maxima is modest compared to summer months like July and August, when monsoon activity and tropical systems introduce greater variability.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any updates to long-range weather models as June 2026 approaches. Tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific, whilst more common later in summer, can occasionally influence early-June conditions. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 13 June 2026, after which the Observatory typically publishes daily data within 24–48 hours. No meaningful divergence exists between prediction-market odds and meteorological baseline expectations at this stage, reflecting the absence of active trading rather than consensus disagreement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.