Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in degrees Celsius on 14 June 2026, with settlement determined by the "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once data is finalised. The current 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the market's inability to price a future weather outcome with meaningful confidence; no temperature range has attracted measurable trading activity, suggesting traders are withholding positions until closer to the settlement date or treating the contract as too uncertain to commit capital.

Hong Kong's June temperatures typically range between 28°C and 34°C, with historical daily maxima during mid-June clustering around 31–33°C according to the Observatory's climate records spanning decades. The 2025 June 14 maximum reached 32.1°C under typical monsoon conditions. These historical patterns provide a baseline, though individual daily variation remains substantial; outlier days have exceeded 35°C during heat waves, whilst cooler systems occasionally suppress maxima below 28°C. The absence of trading activity suggests the market may be waiting for seasonal forecasts or atmospheric pattern data to emerge before participants differentiate between temperature bands.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Hong Kong Observatory's extended-range forecasts from late May onwards, particularly any alerts regarding heat waves or tropical cyclone activity that could suppress temperatures. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 14 June 2026, after which the Observatory typically publishes daily climate data within 24–48 hours. Any significant atmospheric pattern shifts—such as early-season tropical systems or anomalous high-pressure systems—would alter the probability distribution across temperature ranges and likely trigger trading activity in the final weeks before settlement.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 14? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.