Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 16?

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Market context

On 16 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius, with settlement determined by which range bracket contains that single measurement. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are either awaiting clarification on the specific temperature bands available, or the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across all outcome categories.

Hong Kong's June climate is characterised by early monsoon conditions and rising summer heat. Historical data from the Observatory shows June daily maxima typically range between 28°C and 32°C, with occasional readings exceeding 33°C during heat waves. The 2015 heat wave pushed June temperatures to 35.5°C, whilst more moderate years see peaks around 30–31°C. These precedents establish the baseline against which traders should calibrate their expectations; the 0% probability across all ranges suggests the market structure itself may require refinement rather than reflecting genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any issued heat advisories as June 2026 approaches. The Observatory publishes monthly climate outlooks that typically become available six to eight weeks in advance, providing early signals for anomalous temperature patterns. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during that period would materially influence monsoon intensity and heat accumulation. Cross-referencing regional meteorological agency forecasts—particularly from the China Meteorological Administration—offers additional context for assessing whether June 2026 will trend toward historical norms or extremes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.