Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17?

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Market context

On 17 June 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius, with settlement determined by which range bracket contains that single reading. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders are either awaiting clarity on the specific temperature bands available or have already positioned heavily against certain outcomes.

Hong Kong's June temperatures typically cluster between 28°C and 34°C, with historical daily maxima rarely exceeding 35°C during this month. The 2023 and 2024 June records show consistent patterns: most days settle in the 30–33°C range, whilst heat spikes above 34°C occur sporadically. The absence of any YES probability here likely reflects either incomplete market seeding or that traders have ruled out extreme outcomes for this particular date. Comparable June days from the past decade provide a baseline: the Observatory's daily extract data shows only occasional excursions beyond 34°C, making very high temperature ranges statistically unlikely.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone or monsoon activity approaching the region in mid-June 2026. The Southwest Monsoon typically dominates Hong Kong's weather pattern by mid-June, which generally moderates extreme heat through increased cloud cover and moisture. Real-time atmospheric pressure systems and any upper-air ridge development will be the primary catalysts determining whether temperatures trend toward the historical mean or spike into less-common brackets. Settlement depends entirely on the Observatory's published daily extract data, which becomes available after the specified date closes.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 17? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.