Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong’s hottest reading on 22 June will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily extract, and the current 0% crowd-implied price looks conservative against the official outlook. The Observatory says June to August 2026 is expected to be **above-normal temperature**, and its annual outlook says 2026 has a **high chance of reaching the warmest top 10 on record**[1][9]. AccuWeather’s June guidance also points to daily highs in the high 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit, which is consistent with a day capable of producing a top reading in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius[2].

Recent comparables suggest the distribution is skewed towards warm outcomes rather than a cool cap. Hong Kong logged its hottest day of 2025 at **35.6°C** in June, while February 2026 was already described by the Observatory as “an exceptionally warm February”, underscoring the persistence of unusual warmth this year[8][4]. On that backdrop, a zero-implied chance on the market appears materially lower than the broad climate and forecast signal, although short-term weather still matters more than seasonal guidance for a single-day maximum[1][2].

Traders should watch the Observatory’s near-term severe-weather updates, because cloud cover, rain bands and thunderstorm outbreaks are the main swing factors for whether the day reaches the upper temperature brackets. The key dependency is the final “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” in the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract, which will not settle until the data is published[1]. If the day develops under strong sunshine with limited convection, the top range can be reached quickly; if showers or a tropical disturbance interrupt heating, the market outcome shifts lower.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.