Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 27?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory is set to record the highest temperature for 27 June 2026, a single data point that will determine the outcome of a prediction market currently showing zero per cent implied probability for the “YES” outcome. This stark divergence from Polymarket, where traders assign a 67 per cent chance to 30°C as the frontrunner, highlights a significant mispricing between platforms. Analysts note that while some sportsbooks remain silent on this specific weather contract, prediction markets are actively pricing in above-normal temperatures for the June–August 2026 season, as confirmed by the Observatory’s own seasonal forecast [2].

Historical context frames this current probability as unusually cautious. Recent records show Hong Kong hitting 34.6°C on the hottest day of the year so far, just days prior, with daily highs in June typically ranging between 31°C and 33°C (88°F to 92°F) [3][9]. The 0% market line ignores this thermal trajectory, whereas Polymarket’s 67% weighting on 30°C aligns more closely with the observed trend of above-normal heat and the specific warning of extreme heat issued by the Observatory [7]. Traders should watch for the finalisation of the “Daily Extract” data, which is the mandatory settlement source, and monitor any sudden shifts in the ENSO status that could alter the forecast [2]. The resolution cannot occur until the Observatory publishes the absolute daily maximum, a dependency that currently leaves the market vulnerable to data delays [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.