Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4?

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 4 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves based on the absolute daily maximum temperature published in the Observatory's Daily Extract climate data, with settlement occurring after the official reading is finalised and released.

Hong Kong's June temperatures are highly predictable within narrow bands. Historical data shows that daily maxima in early June typically range between 29°C and 33°C, with the long-term average around 31°C. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders expect the actual reading to fall outside all offered ranges, which is unusual given the consistency of early-June conditions. This divergence from typical weather patterns warrants scrutiny—either the available temperature brackets are poorly calibrated, or the market reflects genuine uncertainty about whether Observatory data will be published by the settlement deadline.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's publication schedule closely, as delays in releasing Daily Extract data could prevent resolution. The primary catalyst is the Observatory's standard data release cycle, typically completed within days of the observation date. Secondary factors include any operational disruptions at the Observatory or changes to their reporting protocols. Given that June 2026 is nearly two years away, current trading reflects only baseline seasonal expectations rather than any specific weather forecast. The 0% probability may indicate insufficient liquidity or range-setting issues rather than genuine predictive consensus.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.