Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 6?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's highest daily temperature on 6 June 2026 will be measured by the Hong Kong Observatory and recorded to one decimal place in Celsius. The settlement window closes at midday on that date, though final resolution depends on the Observatory publishing its daily extract data, which typically occurs within days of observation.

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong show considerable consistency. The Observatory's records indicate that daily maxima in early June typically range between 29°C and 33°C, with occasional peaks above 34°C during particularly intense heat episodes. The 0% implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are either awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts or treating this as a placeholder contract pending more granular temperature-band options. This contrasts sharply with the deterministic nature of the underlying event—a specific temperature will be recorded regardless of market positioning.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal outlook, typically updated monthly, and watch for any tropical cyclone activity or monsoon shifts that could suppress temperatures in early June. The South China Sea's sea-surface temperatures in May will influence atmospheric conditions heading into the settlement date. Current weather models remain too distant to provide reliable guidance, meaning the market's current odds reflect genuine forecast uncertainty rather than consensus avoidance. Any significant divergence between this contract and comparable temperature markets for other East Asian cities would indicate either regional-specific factors or pricing inefficiency worth investigating.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 6? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.