Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong's weather on 9 June 2026 will determine the settlement of this temperature-range market, with the Hong Kong Observatory's official daily maximum reading serving as the sole arbiter. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though resolution cannot occur until the Observatory publishes its finalised daily extract data, typically released within days of the observation period.

Historical June temperatures in Hong Kong show considerable consistency. The Observatory's climate records indicate that daily maxima in early June typically range between 29°C and 33°C, with the long-term average around 31°C. June marks the transition into the southwest monsoon season, bringing increased humidity and occasional rainfall that can suppress afternoon peaks. The 0% implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are either awaiting the specific temperature bands offered or treating this as a calibration exercise given the distant settlement date and established seasonal patterns.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late May and early June, as such systems can materially alter temperature trajectories. The Observatory publishes monthly outlooks and issues typhoon warnings with substantial lead time. Cross-platform comparison reveals minimal divergence, with most prediction markets showing negligible trading volume at this distance from settlement, indicating limited consensus formation until nearer the event date or once temperature bands become clearer through market activity.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.