Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 27 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band captures that peak reading, with settlement contingent on the Observatory's finalised daily extract data becoming available. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting historical baseline data or treating this as a placeholder contract pending clearer range definitions.

Hong Kong's May temperatures typically range between 28–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves or early-season tropical influences. Historical May records show the territory experiences high humidity and variable conditions depending on monsoon transitions; the 27th falls within the pre-summer window when thermal variability is pronounced. Comparable May days from the past decade provide the most reliable anchors for assessing which temperature bands carry genuine probability mass, though the 0% reading across the board suggests the market may lack sufficient liquidity or clarity on available resolution brackets.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during late May 2026, as both influence daily maxima substantially. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 27 May, meaning the Observatory's official daily extract—typically published within days of the observation date—will determine final resolution. No major announcements or policy changes typically affect temperature recording methodology, making this contract's resolution primarily dependent on meteorological conditions and data publication timing rather than institutional factors.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.