Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25?

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Market context

On 25 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Istanbul Airport (LTFM) will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius. NOAA's hourly readings from that date will determine the settlement outcome, with the market resolving once all 24-hour data is finalised. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are not yet positioning significantly on any particular temperature band, despite the market being live.

Istanbul's May temperatures typically range between 20–28°C, with historical averages around 25°C for daily highs. The city experiences late spring conditions by late May, though occasional heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. Comparable May days at the airport show considerable variance depending on whether Atlantic weather systems or continental air masses dominate; this seasonal variability explains why temperature-range markets require careful calibration rather than point estimates. Recent May periods have occasionally exceeded 30°C, though such occurrences remain minority outcomes.

The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 May 2026, giving traders until that point to adjust positions based on real-time meteorological forecasts. Weather models typically gain reliability 10–14 days ahead; traders should monitor European weather services and NOAA's own extended forecasts from mid-May onwards for signs of anomalous heat or cooler patterns. Any significant Mediterranean heat event or unusual blocking high-pressure system developing in late April would shift probability distributions materially, as would confirmation of typical seasonal conditions closer to the date.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.