Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Kuala Lumpur International Airport will fall within a specific range measured in degrees Celsius. The market resolves using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than its summary section, a distinction that matters when automated systems and manual readings diverge. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on that date, capturing the full diurnal cycle for the Malaysian capital.

Kuala Lumpur's August climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from the past decade shows daily highs clustering between 32–34°C, with extreme readings above 35°C occurring in fewer than 5% of August days. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either a technical misunderstanding of the market's range options or genuine confidence that the highest temperature will fall outside whichever threshold this particular contract specifies. Without visibility on the exact temperature bands offered, the implied probability reflects either extreme certainty or market illiquidity rather than meteorological expectation.

Traders should monitor the Malaysian Meteorological Department's monsoon forecasts in the weeks preceding mid-August 2026, as the southwest monsoon season can suppress afternoon peaks through cloud cover and precipitation. Any El Niño or La Niña signals emerging in early 2026 could shift seasonal patterns. The specificity of using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—rather than airport automated systems or national meteorological records—introduces a dependency on that platform's data quality and reporting consistency, which has occasionally shown discrepancies with official Malaysian sources during equipment maintenance windows.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.