Highest temperature in London on June 13?

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Market context

The settlement of this contract hinges on the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 13 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved against historical data from Weather Underground. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are pricing in near-certainty that the temperature will fall outside whichever range this market's upper bound represents, or that no meaningful trading activity has yet materialised around this specific date.

London's June temperatures typically range between 15°C and 23°C, with historical highs occasionally reaching 28–30°C during warm spells. The 13th holds no particular meteorological significance; June itself sits in the early-summer window when Atlantic weather systems and continental air masses compete for influence over the British Isles. Comparable prediction markets on UK temperature extremes have historically shown that crowd estimates tend to underweight the tail probability of unseasonably warm days, particularly when settlement dates lie more than a year ahead and traders lack immediate seasonal context.

The key variable traders should monitor is the Met Office's seasonal outlook for June 2026, typically published in May, which may signal whether anomalous warmth is expected. Current atmospheric indices—including sea-surface temperatures in the North Atlantic and the state of the North Atlantic Oscillation—will shape conditions months in advance, though their predictive power beyond three months remains limited. The absence of current trading activity (reflected in the 0% probability) suggests this market has attracted minimal attention; meaningful price discovery may only occur as June 2026 approaches and traders can anchor expectations to updated forecasts.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in London on June 13? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.