Highest temperature in London on June 7?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The highest temperature at London City Airport on 7 June 2026 will be recorded and resolved against pre-defined temperature bands, with settlement determined by Wunderground historical data. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are not backing any specific temperature range, indicating either genuine uncertainty about which band will resolve or a technical artefact of low trading volume at market open.

Historical June weather in London shows considerable variability. Between 2015 and 2024, June maximum temperatures at City Airport ranged from 17°C to 28°C, with most years clustering between 20°C and 25°C. The 28°C reading in June 2022 remains an outlier; more typical warm Junes peak around 24–26°C. This distribution suggests that mid-range temperature bands (22–26°C) have carried the highest frequency of resolution historically, though extreme heat events have become more common in recent years across the UK.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the Met Office's extended forecast as June approaches, particularly any signals of Atlantic high-pressure systems or continental warm air masses reaching the British Isles. The UK's seasonal weather patterns typically show June as transitional between spring and summer, with jet-stream positioning determining whether cooler Atlantic systems or warmer continental air dominates. Any significant divergence between this market's implied probabilities and consensus forecasts from established weather services would indicate mispricing, though the current 0% reading suggests the market has not yet attracted substantive trading activity to establish meaningful odds.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.