Highest temperature in London on May 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The settlement of this contract hinges on the single highest temperature reading at London City Airport on 27 May 2026, measured in Celsius and resolved against historical data from Wunderground. The 0% implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are either uncertain about the specific temperature range options available or treating this as a placeholder market awaiting clearer definition of the resolution bands.

London's late May temperatures typically range between 15–22°C, with historical highs occasionally reaching 25–27°C during warm spells. The Met Office records show that temperatures above 28°C on this date are rare but not unprecedented; the highest May temperatures in London have occasionally exceeded 30°C during exceptional heatwaves, though such extremes remain outliers. Comparing this to sportsbooks and weather-focused betting platforms, which rarely offer granular temperature contracts, reveals limited cross-platform pricing data. The absence of meaningful divergence between markets likely reflects the contract's specificity rather than consensus uncertainty.

Traders should monitor the UK Met Office's seasonal outlook and any issued heatwave advisories as May 2026 approaches. The North Atlantic Oscillation and broader European pressure patterns typically become clearer two to three weeks before the settlement date, allowing meteorological forecasters to refine predictions. Recent climate data suggests late spring temperatures in southern England have trended slightly warmer over the past decade, though individual daily extremes remain highly variable. The resolution window closing at 12:00 UTC means afternoon peak temperatures will be captured, historically the warmest period of the day.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.