Highest temperature in London on May 28?

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Market context

The London City Airport weather station will record its highest temperature on 28 May 2026, with settlement determined by historical data from Wunderground. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are not yet pricing meaningful conviction into any specific temperature band, typical for markets settling nearly two years forward where meteorological precision remains speculative.

Late May temperatures at London City Airport historically cluster between 18°C and 24°C, with occasional excursions to 26–28°C during warm spells. The 2022 heatwave saw May highs reach 29°C across London, whilst more typical years record maxima around 20–22°C. This historical range frames the baseline against which traders should calibrate their expectations; the 0% probability across all bands suggests the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish differentiated odds, rather than reflecting genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the UK Met Office's seasonal forecasts for spring 2026, though such long-range predictions carry substantial uncertainty margins. The Atlantic Oscillation index and sea-surface temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic will influence whether high-pressure systems establish over the British Isles during late May. Near-term catalysts include winter 2025–26 conditions, which may signal broader atmospheric patterns affecting spring weather. Settlement depends entirely on the Wunderground historical database for London City Airport (EGLC), making data availability the only operational risk once the date arrives.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.