Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Los Angeles will experience some temperature reading on 17 August 2026, and this market seeks to identify which range contains the daily high recorded at LAX. The settlement hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces different values when multiple stations or measurement methods are involved. The market currently shows zero probability assigned to any outcome, suggesting either minimal trading activity or a technical issue in crowd pricing.

August temperatures at LAX typically peak between 75–85°F, with historical August averages around 79°F. The station has recorded readings above 90°F on rare occasions during heat waves, though such extremes occur perhaps once every five to ten years in mid-August. The 0% implied probability across all ranges indicates traders have not yet engaged with this contract, making it difficult to assess whether the crowd expects an unusually cool day, typical conditions, or an outlier event. Comparable prediction markets on US weather tend to show meaningful probability mass once trading begins, even for seemingly routine meteorological outcomes.

The National Weather Service issues forecasts for the Los Angeles basin several days in advance, with updates typically released each morning. Traders should monitor NWS discussions and any heat advisories issued for mid-August 2026, as these often precede temperature extremes. El Niño or La Niña conditions, if present in summer 2026, could influence whether August runs warmer or cooler than the thirty-year normal. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on 17 August, allowing Weather Underground's final daily observation to be recorded before resolution.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.