Highest temperature in Madrid on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid's highest temperature on 25 July 2026 will be measured at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport and resolved through historical weather data from Wunderground. The market currently implies a 4% probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders assess a low likelihood of an extreme heat event on that specific date.

Madrid's July climate presents a baseline for comparison. The city's historical July average high stands around 32–33°C, with typical peak temperatures in the 35–38°C range during summer heat waves. The absolute maximum temperature ever recorded in Madrid is 40.3°C (July 1957), though readings above 40°C remain rare events occurring roughly once per decade in the region. The 4% crowd probability reflects the rarity of such extremes; most July days in Madrid fall well below this threshold, making the YES outcome a tail-risk scenario rather than a routine occurrence.

European weather patterns heading into summer 2026 will determine whether conditions favour anomalous heat. The North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and Mediterranean sea-surface temperatures all influence Iberian summer temperatures. Traders should monitor European weather forecasts from late June onwards, particularly tracking whether high-pressure systems establish over the Iberian Peninsula in the days preceding 25 July. Historical precedent suggests that sustained heat waves capable of producing extreme daily maxima typically require multi-day atmospheric blocking patterns, making real-time meteorological data from mid-July the primary catalyst for significant probability shifts in this market.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.