Highest temperature in Manila on July 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 1 July 2026, Manila will experience its peak daytime heat at Ninoy Aquino International Airport, with historical averages pointing to a maximum near 31°C under very high humidity and frequent rainfall. Long-term data confirms July is the wettest month in the Philippines, with 21 days of rain and average highs of 31°C, while the hottest months typically occur in March and April during the dry season[1][2]. Recent PAGASA records show tropical storms affecting 1.6 days in July, and heat indices have previously reached 46°C, though actual air temperatures rarely exceed 34°C in the region[1][6].

The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market expects temperatures to stay within a lower range, diverging from analyst consensus that July highs often reach 31°C to 34°C. Traders should monitor PAGASA’s daily heat index forecasts and tropical storm advisories, as a sudden shift in wind patterns or storm passage could suppress temperatures below expected levels[6][7]. A recent PAGASA update on 30 June 2026 listed Catbalogan and Laoag at 34.0°C, indicating that while Manila’s peak is lower, regional extremes remain possible and could influence settlement if weather models change abruptly[6]. No major announcements are scheduled, but real-time Wunderground data will be the definitive settlement source, requiring close attention to hourly fluctuations on 1 July.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.