Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila faces its peak wet-season heat today, with the Ninoy Aquino International Airport station expected to record a maximum temperature near 31°C amid heavy rainfall and high humidity. The crowd-implied probability of 0% for a YES outcome suggests the market anticipates the day’s peak will fall within a lower range, likely below the threshold required for a positive resolution, despite dangerous heat indices reaching 44°C in surrounding Metro Manila areas[3].

Historical July data frames this low probability as consistent with seasonal norms, where daytime maximums typically reach 31°C with 21 days of rainfall and 389mm of monthly precipitation[4]. April remains Manila’s hottest month, with dry-season averages hitting 32°C, whereas July’s wet season caps averages at 31°C, making extreme highs less probable than in the dry months[2]. The 0% line aligns with this pattern, as July rarely produces temperatures exceeding the 32°C–34°C range seen in peak dry-season months.

Traders should monitor Pagasa’s hourly heat index updates and Wunderground’s real-time station data for any deviation from the 29°C–31°C forecast window[6]. A sudden tropical storm passage, which affects roughly 1.6 days in July, could suppress temperatures further, while an unexpected dry spell might push highs toward 33°C[4]. The settlement hinges entirely on the Wunderground record for RPLL at 12:00Z on 11 July 2026, so any discrepancy between forecasted and actual readings will drive the final resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.