Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila’s Ninoy Aquino International Airport will record its peak temperature for 30 June 2026, with the market resolving to the Celsius bracket containing that maximum. While the current crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome sits at 0%, historical data and short-range forecasts suggest this figure may be misaligned with reality. Long-term averages indicate daytime highs in Manila during June typically reach 32°C, accompanied by very high heat and humidity [2]. Recent PAGASA guidance for the wet season (June–October) projects average temperatures between 26°C and 31°C, with today’s forecast already showing a maximum of 34.3°C at 1:50 PM [3][6]. Trader consensus on Polymarket similarly centres on 29–31°C outcomes, with 29°C assigned a 62% probability, contradicting the 0% implied by the current contract [1].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from DOST-PAGASA and Wunderground, the designated resolution source, as tropical storm activity could shift temperature trajectories. On average, 1.2 days in June in Manila experience tropical storm passage, which may suppress peak temperatures or alter humidity levels [2]. The wet season’s heaviest rainfall occurs in July and August, but early June storms remain a credible catalyst for deviation from the 32°C norm [3]. No official announcements have yet confirmed a temperature cap below 29°C, and the absence of such data makes the 0% probability appear speculative. Analysts note that variable cloud cover and monsoon intensity will be decisive; without a confirmed cooling event, the market’s current stance lacks empirical grounding [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Manila on June 30? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.